Do first servers win more games?

Prepare early to reduce errors. Pickleball gambling is back.

September 11, 2024

Do you have a preference for serving first or serving second? In the long run, it shouldn’t matter, right? The first team to serve has a chance to put points on the board right away. They have the only opportunity at a golden pickle, but they also have to start at 0-0-2.

The second team to serve has to win a point before they have a chance to score, but they receive the advantage of starting on 0-0-1 and getting both serves.

A pair of mathematicians set out to find a definitive answer on which you should choose to win more games. Find out their results below.

In This Issue:

⏱️ Prepare early to prevent mistakes
📊 Data to drive your pregame decision
🎰 Gambling returns for Atlanta Slam

Time to crunch the numbers.

Our Picks ☝️

📰 News: Are Nearby Pickleball Courts a Real Estate Win or Loss?

The jury is still out on whether pickleball courts increase or decrease real estate value.

There are arguments to be made on both sides, but maybe the trick is finding a sweet spot where courts are convenient to get to but still far away enough not to be heard.

💬 Quote: The Wrong Way to Defend an ATP

One pickleball player turned to Reddit for feedback on an innovative defensive strategy. Someone jokingly asked, “Is it bad sportsmanship to tackle my opponent as she goes for an ATP?”

The OP, a former football player, was clearly kidding. But aside from the obvious moral issue, tackling your opponent would get you penalized for crossing the net, and it would definitely count as a hindrance. So, the real answer is no, you cannot tackle your opponent on the court. But hey, it's fun to imagine.

🎥 Video: Hot Takes on Deweaponizing the Serve

Pickleball pro Will Howells provides a hot take on the serve rules conversation. Will discerns that de-weaponizing the serve is…dumb. He provides a unique perspective that a weaponized serve is necessary to maintain the skill gap between pro and amateur players. Without the skill gap, he alleges that viewership interest could suffer.

Stop Mishits by Prepping Early

Blink and you’ll miss it

To the untrained eye, it may seem like a pro or high-level player pulls the paddle back just before swinging.

However, if you slow down the video or pause it, you’ll notice something interesting. Players aren’t waiting for the ball to reach them before prepping; they position and ready the paddle as soon as they anticipate the ball's direction.

What prepping a paddle looks like

Before diving into why early preparation is important, let’s show you what it looks like. Here’s a still from a match between Ben Johns and Anna Leigh Waters, the #1 Mixed Doubles team, against Genie Bouchard and Yates Johnson.

The arrow on the left shows where the ball is after a return, while the right arrow highlights Ben with his paddle down, ready to hit.

The ball has just crossed the kitchen line, and Ben is already set to move forward. In contrast, here’s a still of Genie Bouchard during a return of serve. Notice how deep the ball is—near the baseline—by the time her paddle is down.

Here’s another example with both players at the kitchen line. Ben’s paddle is ready well before the ball reaches him. It hasn’t even crossed the net, yet he’s prepped and ready.

Compare this to Genie (sorry, Genie!). The ball is close to her, and she still hasn’t set her paddle for a clean strike.

Why early preparation matters

It’s no surprise that Ben’s shots result in solid contact and power, while Genie’s don’t. Early prep helps you consistently hit the paddle's sweet spot and reduces mishits.

How to prep early

The key to early preparation comes down to three things:

  1. Anticipate where the ball is going as early as possible 👀

  2. Position your body and set your feet as soon as your opponent hits the ball – then adjust your body position quickly 🏃

  3. Hold your paddle in the ideal striking position – this should be done by the time the ball crosses the net ⏸️

Instead of swinging, focus on pushing or extending your paddle into the ball. This will reduce mishits and bring you one step closer to playing like Ben Johns.

Feel Good, Play Better

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With Hims, you're not just losing weight; you're gaining an edge. After submitting your assessment, a licensed healthcare provider will cook up a personalized game plan just for you that may include an oral medication kit or GLP-1s.

And because we know you love a good deal, oral medication kits through Weight Loss by Hims start at just $79/month with a 5-month subscription, no insurance required. It’s not just about shedding pounds; it’s about elevating your entire game, from the court to your core.

Should You Serve First in a Pickleball Match?

Have we been overlooking a major advantage in the game of pickleball? Does the team that serves first have a significant advantage in a match?

In singles, the advantage is clear. In doubles though, most players aren’t concerned about who serves first. The advantage appears neutralized by the first team starting on 0-0-2.

If you had to choose, would you prefer your team serve first or second?

  • For tournament play, a random draw or the old “number one or number two?” game determines who gets the choice of serve or side to start a match

  • In rec play, a park’s ‘house rules’ will usually dictate a side of the court that serves first

But is there an advantage either way? Two pickleball fans crunched the numbers so you don’t have. Elizabethtown Community and Technical College's faculty member Miky Wright and engineer William Figary published an article on the statistical impact of serving first in pickleball.

After building a mathematical program and running 10,000 match simulations they found the team that serves first does not have an advantage in games played 11. However, the advantage becomes statistically significant in games played to 15 points.

More importantly, they determined:

  • If there is an advantageous side of the court, you should always start on the ‘bad’ side and should choose that instead of choosing to serve or return

  • If one player on the team is better at serving, they should start on the right side and serve first

There are plenty of variables that could offset these conclusions but if you’re a player that likes data-backed decisions you now have some numbers to help in your decision-making. Worst case, you can blame a loss on the pre-game coin flip or even slight wind conditions.

In a doubles match, if both sides of the court are equal, which would you choose?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

This One Means More

The Atlanta Slam began yesterday, and the Round of 64 kicked off with a few surprising results.

Put a Sock in it
Jack Foster fought his way through the qualifier to earn a spot in the Round of 64. He made the most of that qualification and upset the No. 9 seed Jack Sock in two games.

Follow the Crumbs
Another qualifier, Alexander Crum, upset the No. 10 seed Pablo Tellez prompting this paddle throw from Tellez. Crum will face the 22-seed Naveen Beasley who also upset Zane Navratil.

Close Call Replay
The upgraded Close Call Replay system will be used in Atlanta. It won’t cover every court, but we won’t have to worry about line call disputes affecting the results for the semifinals and Championship Sunday.

Provisional Serve Rule
A new serve rule will also be in effect starting this week. As discussed in Wednesday’s send, it is the latest attempt to reel in some of the game’s most offensive serves.

Get the full scoop for the event including podium predictions from our guy Erik Tice here. The broadcast starts 11 am ET on PickleballTV but don’t miss two national broadcast windows, from 3-5 pm ET on ESPN 2 and 6-7 pm ET on CBS Sports.

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The team at Cozy Earth has worked hard to provide you with the highest-quality sheets. Each set goes through rigorous research and development, and every detail has been carefully considered and painstakingly tested, from design and fabrication to quality and sustainability. When you try them, you’ll see why they’ve received nearly 7,000 5-star reviews!

Betting on Pickleball is Back

Gambling fans rejoice. Pickleball betting is available once again. The Fanatics Sportsbook app is quietly offering lines on the PPA Atlanta Slam matches.

Gambling on pickleball was first introduced last summer and was available on several platforms, including FanDuel. In January, PPA Tour founder/CEO Connor Pardoe tweeted, “You can now wager on pickleball in the state of Florida! Pop by Hard Rock Casino to play and watch pickleball every PPA Tour weekend.”

However, by spring, it appeared that most platforms had rolled back their pickleball offerings. The assumption is that betting lines were still too favorable to gamblers.

This new iteration comes with some limitations:

  • Not all matches are available to bet on

  • Max bet limits prevent any large bets from being placed

  • Lines are only available an hour or two before the match begins

Solving the gambling issue could have a huge impact on pickleball’s viewership problem and help drive more money into the sport. If online sports betting is available in your state, check out some of our picks and let us know who you’re betting on.

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